We ran the calculator on real outages with each company's own figures, and compared it with the costs each one published. It came in at 0.4x to 1.0x of the published costs. The published cost falls inside the likely range in 1 of 4 comparisons.
| Outage | Compared on | Disclosed | This model | Likely range | Model ÷ disclosed | Notes |
| Rogers, Canada, July 2022 | Goodwill credits | CA$150.0M | CA$66.8M | CA$45.9M to CA$96.7M | 0.4x | Rogers refunded about CA$150M: five days of service to every wireless and cable customer. Rogers did not put a figure on its other outage costs. Its five days are the high end: AT&T credited one day after 12 hours in 2024. Some of the calculator's numbers come from this outage, so it only partly tests the calculator. |
| Optus, Australia, November 2023 | Cost during the outage, goodwill and customer support | A$60.0M | A$30.2M | A$23.5M to A$39.7M | 0.5x | Singtel set aside about A$60M (S$54M) for the outage. Singtel never said what the provision covers. Part of it may be set aside for the fine ACMA later issued (more than A$12M), which this calculator lists on its own. Most of the goodwill was free data. |
| KDDI, Japan, July 2022 | Cost during the outage, goodwill and customer support | ¥15.0B | ¥11.0B | ¥8.5B to ¥14.6B | 0.7x | KDDI forecast about ¥15bn off operating income for refunds and response costs (February 2023). A forecast. KDDI never published the final figure on its own. The calculator counts only affected mobile customers; applying the 63.5% to all of KDDI's revenue, energy and finance included, gives about 2.5x. |
| KDDI, Japan, July 2022 | Goodwill credits | ¥7.5B | ¥7.8B | ¥5.4B to ¥11.3B | 1.0x | KDDI expected its refunds to cost about ¥7.5bn, Okinawa Cellular included: two days of fees to 2.71M customers and ¥200 to 35.89M. Both refunds were paid automatically; part was contractual, part goodwill. |
We left out TSB's 2018 migration failure (£330.2M). Its service was degraded for about seven and a half months, far longer than one outage. For the first three days the calculator gives about £9M for the outage, goodwill and customer support, and about £14M in total. TSB still informs two bank defaults: how many customers leave, and the cost of customer support.
Siemens and Senseye put an hour of unplanned downtime at a large car plant at about $2.3M. Plants reported that figure themselves, so we show it for comparison only.